758 
fxus65 kboi 092054 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
254 PM MDT Friday may 9 2008 


Short term...tonight through Sunday...a short-lived upper-level ridge 
will begin building into the region tonight...while a strong 
trough takes aim on US for Sunday. The result will be warmer temperatures 
with no precipitation on Saturday...and then a slightly cooler day 
Sunday everywhere but in the western Magic Valley. A cold front 
will move through early Sunday in southeast Oregon and around midday for 
SW Idaho. The western Magic Valley will be the last place in our 
County Warning Area to see the cold front...and therefore their high temperatures on 
Sunday will be the warmest. The chance for showers increases on 
Sunday...but should be confined to the higher elevations... 
especially the west central and Boise Mountains. Mostly clear 
skies and light winds will help push low temperatures downward Sat 
morning...but winds and clouds Sunday morning should hold minimum 
temperatures up about 10 degrees compared to Saturday morning. 
There were no important differences in the NAM...GFS...or European model (ecmwf) 
for the short term. 


Long term...Sunday night through Friday...cold front will be 
exiting the County Warning Area by Sunday night with the upper level trough 
settling in over the area by Monday morning. Instability generated 
by the cold pool aloft will sustain mountains showers throughout 
the day on Monday...tapering off by Tuesday morning. Ridge of high 
pressure begins to build over the area Tuesday into Wednesday with 
temperatures warming about 5 degrees each day. The latest couple 
of model runs have been spilling warm frontal moisture over the 
ridge on Wednesday...which is different from the dry forecast we 
had yesterday. With current models all in good agreement in this 
feature...mentionable probability of precipitation and clouds were introduced into the 
west central and Boise Mountains. The ridge shifts inland Thursday 
and Friday...centering over the western Continental U.S.. this will keep 
skies mostly clear and raise temperatures to nearly 15 degrees 
above normal. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions today with scattered to broken middle level 
ceilings along the Idaho/Nevada border and through the central mountains. 
This evening skies clear across the region. Surface winds will be 
light tonight with moderate to strong gusts through the upper Treasure 
and western Magic Valleys. Winds aloft will be moderate northwest. 
Conditions will remain VFR for Saturday...but Sunday will see scattered 
mountain obscurations due to showers along with local MVFR ceiling 
north of kbno-kono-kjer due to a cold front. 




&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...snow pellets 
long term....df/LH 
aviation.....Df