038 
fxus65 kboi 070951 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
251 am MST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Short term...at 09z kcbx radar showed showers continuing in a band 
extemding from the SW corner of Idaho northeastward to southern Camas County... 
parallel to the remains of Friday/S cold front which was near the 
southern Idaho border. Strong westerly flow aloft continues to advect cool and 
unstable air into our County Warning Area but so far other showers have been hard to 
find. Sapix showed next short wave trough from the Pacific along 
the Cascades at 09z and moving rapidly east...for a chance of rain 
and snow showers in our zones later this morning...but very low MOS 
probability of precipitation suggest they won't happen. We think they will. Maximum temperatures will 
be slightly below normal today and Sunday...with min temperatures near 
normal due to continuing mixing winds and cloud cover. 


Long term...Sunday night through Friday...shortwave ridge will build 
over the area Sunday night and Monday with warmer temperatures above 4000 feet 
mean sea level but little change below 4000 feet under stable inversion. A cold 
front will advance from the west Tuesday night in conjunction with a 
moist Pacific trough for higher probability of precipitation Tuesday...and snow levels 
falling to around 5k feet mean sea level behind the front Wednesday. 
Considerable disagreement remains in the extended models regarding 
the position and strength of a longwave trough beyond Wednesday. 
Based on the 00z runs the GFS gives a faster and more progressive 
flow while the European model (ecmwf) favors slower timing but paints a closed low 
over the forecast area by Friday. With this much uncertainty the 
National guidance preferred a compromise between the two. Following 
closely with this results in above climatology probability of precipitation and slightly below 
normal temperatures through the period. 


&& 


Aviation...local MVFR/mountain obscuration over the Idaho mountains and 
southwest Highlands this morning...generally southeast of kboi. 
Conditions will improve by middle to late afternoon. Winds aloft 
southwest 30 kts with northwest surface winds 10 to 15 kts. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...lc 
long term....cd 
aviation.....Cd