988 
fxus65 kpih 071032 
afdpih 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho 
332 am MST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Short term...today through Monday. 
Embedded short wave in zonal flow aloft working through southeast 
Idaho this morning. Expect some showers through the morning mainly 
in high elevations of the central mountains and upper snake 
Highlands. Snow levels around 6000 feet and expect perhaps local 
accumulations of around an inch above those levels. Drier air 
moves in tonight and expect dry conditions Sunday and Monday. 
Temperatures will remain fairly moderate for early November with 
daytime highs slightly above normal through the short term. Winds 
will increase in the snake plain to the 10 to 15 miles per hour range this 
afternoon. 
Gk 


Long term...Tuesday through Saturday. SW flow aloft will persist 
through Wednesday as a new upper trough moves into the Pacific northwest Tuesday night. Isolated 
showers begin to move into the cen mountains on Tuesday...mainly on windward 
slopes. Showers will spread across the forecast area by Wednesday as the upper 
trough moves inland. The GFS has the cold front passing through the forecast 
area on Wednesday. Precipitation diminishes in the valley locations by Thursday as the 
upper trough moves off to the east. Stronger cyclonic flow with the 
northern stream will keep the threat of precipitation over the northern 
forecast area mountains through Thursday night. The GFS and the European model (ecmwf) are in general 
agreement through Wednesday...but differ considerably on the progression of 
the trough. The GFS is much more progressive...while the European model (ecmwf) keeps 
the trough to the west through Thursday. The European model (ecmwf) closes off into an 
upper low over SW Idaho by Friday morning. The GFS has a very weak upper low 
over Nevada. The European model (ecmwf) would make a stronger case for precipitation on Friday. 
Will be keeping low chance probability of precipitation over mainly the northern mountains on Friday...but 
more in line with the GFS solution. The GFS brings another upper 
trough through on Sat...which is out of phase with the European model (ecmwf) solution. 
Will continue low chance probability of precipitation over the mountains with the best chances in 
the northern mountains the European model (ecmwf) also brings a trough into the area on Sat... 
but with lower amplitude. Temperatures will stay cool through the end of the 
forecast period. Hedges 
&& 


Aviation...scattered showers will move through the cen mountains and parts of the 
Snake River Plain today...and taper off by late afternoon. Overall 
conditions will remain VFR with the exception of ksun this morning. 
LIFR ceilings/fog will remain a threat until around middle morning. Hedges 
&& 


Pih watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$