122 
fxus65 kboi 180851 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
251 am MDT Thursday Mar 18 2010 


Short term...latest models bring a short wave trough in from the 
north-northwest today helping to redevelop old frontal zone still near the Idaho/Nevada 
border...and then taking the front southeastward into Utah. Yesterday/S 
models had the front redeveloping in southern Idaho today. Probability of precipitation will 
therefore be lowered in southern Idaho today. Rest of previous forecasts 
still good with west-northwesterly surface winds increasing in southern Idaho today 
..almost to advisory speeds. So far gusts to 30 miles per hour have occurred 
at Baker/or and Ontario/or but these winds should drop back to 10 
to 15 miles per hour by sunrise before increasing again later today. Today 
will also be 5-10f colder than yesterday with cold advection at 
the surface and north-northwesterly flow aloft. Tonight will also be colder 
than previous nights with mostly clear skies and diminishing winds. 
Friday will begin a warming trend in Oregon but Idaho zones will 
remain cool as north-northwesterly flow aloft continues. Winds Friday will also 
increase again to 15 to 20 miles per hour in the snake basin...but only light 
winds in Oregon. 


Long term...Friday night through Thursday...ridge moves eastward 
across the area over the weekend. Temperatures should warm back 
above normal and remain dry in all areas. Model timing differences 
continue on the trough that moves into the area on Monday or 
Tuesday. Will leave current grids alone since the basic trend of 
having cooler temperatures and increasing chances of precipitation on Monday night 
and Tuesday look good. Might have to increase chances of precipitation and 
reduce temperatures on Monday if model trends toward quicker inland 
movement continue. Pretty good model agreement on ridge moving 
across the area on Wednesday so reduced probability of precipitation for that period...but 
transition to a more zonal flow pattern for Thursday is a little 
different in all models...so trended back toward climatology for 
Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR. North and northwest surface winds will increase 
through the day...with 25g40kt in areas of the Treasure valley this 
afternoon...mostly likely near kmuo. Surface winds will decrease 
rapidly after sunset. Moderate northwest to north winds aloft. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...lc 
long term....tb/Mt 
aviation.....Tb