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fxus65 klkn 071055 
afdlkn 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Elko Nevada 
255 am PST Sat Nov 7 2009 


Synopsis...a weak low pressure system will sag into the Silver 
state this weekend bringing cooler temperatures and a few showers 
across northern Nevada. Another low pressure system may bring some 
snow showers to the Great Basin by the middle of next week. 
&& 


Short term...today through Monday. Infrared imagery this morning shows 
most cloudiness over northern Elko County near the border with 
Idaho. Radar indicating possible light shower activity over the 
mountains however minimal echoes this morning. 


Excellent model agreement in the short term. Cloud development 
noted at this time over northern Elko County due to the lateral movement 
of a 90kt jet crossing over northern Nevada. GFS still dictates a 
couple of very weak shortwaves to move through northern Nevada this 
weekend that will keep shower activity possible. Could not 
individualize shortwaves on NAM model however flow is similar. Cold front 
will just sag south with little effect other than slow cooling for 
the County Warning Area. Models are indicating dry after today...no probability of precipitation after 
this afternoon...current forecast looks good. Daytime temperatures 
will settle out near normal and overnight lows will sink towards 
the 20 degree mark as a rule. 


Long term...Monday night through Friday. Shortwave energy embedded 
in southwest flow will move across northern Nevada...providing 
bulls-eyes of upward vertical motion and yielding isolated rain/snow 
showers along the northern Nevada border...however...minimal quantitative precipitation forecast is 
anticipated. As the long term period unfolds...the model solutions 
noticeably diverge. However...the general trend is that the longwave 
trough will move into the west and deepen...resulting in a change in 
pattern from positive height anomalies to negative height 
anomalies...putting the kibosh on the above normal temperatures the 
County Warning Area had been experiencing. A strong front will carve its way across 
northern and central Nevada midweek...bringing strong cold air advection... 
snows...and gusty conditions. At their peak...precipitable waters  will range from 
40 to .50 with this system. Given the inconsistencies with the 
suite of guidance...probability of precipitation reflect a blend of the latest operational 
runs of the European model (ecmwf) and GFS. 
&& 


Aviation...a decaying frontal boundary will settle into the Great 
Basin today resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies across 
northern Nevada. Isolated pockets of rain/snow will develop over 
northern Elko County...however...the taf sites will remain dry. VFR 
conditions are anticipated for the ensuing 24 hour period. 
&& 


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...none. 
&& 


$$ 


92/97/97