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Nowcast

• 

• Now as of 3:58 PM PDT on May 21, 2013

  Windy conditions will persist until about 6 PM in the Spokane... Coeur D'Alene...Pullman...Moscow...and Lewiston areas. Winds out of the west or southwest will be sustained between 20 and 25 mph with gusts as high as 40 mph. Motorists should be prepared for stiff cross winds and localized areas of blowing dust. Winds will likely subside early this evening.

Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 81 °
• Low: 39 °
• T-Storms

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 52 °
• Low: 32 °
• Rain Showers

• Thursday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 39 °
• Chance Rain

• Friday
• 
• High: 63 °
• Low: 43 °
• Mostly Cloudy

• Saturday
• 
• High: 64 °
• Low: 36 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Spokane Washington 
238 PM PDT Tue may 21 2013 


Synopsis... 
a strong cold front will sweep through the region this afternoon 
into this evening with showers...a chance of thunderstorms and 
breezy winds. Cool and showery weather will continue through much 
of the week, but with some improvement for the Holiday weekend. 


&& 


Discussion... 
tonight and wednesday: a big weather change is expected. A strong 
cold front has moved through eastern Washington and will exit 
north Idaho this evening. A band of strong thunderstorms will 
March across northeast Washington and north Idaho by early this 
evening with small hail and gusty winds. Meanwhile, a deformation 
band of steady rain will slowly move across the Columbia Basin 
into the Idaho Panhandle through the night as a deep upper level 
low creeps from the Washington coast inland. Wet and cool 
conditions will prevail into Wednesday as the upper level low 
wobbles east of the Cascades during the day. Then a secondary band 
of showers develop associated with the low center, which looks 
like it tracks across the Columbia Basin Wednesday morning and 
toward the northeast Washington mountains and Idaho Panhandle by 
late afternoon and early evening. Snow levels will plummet 
overnight, especially across from the Cascades, to the Blue 
Mountains, Palouse and into central Idaho Panhandle by Wednesday 
morning, with snow down to around 3k ft. The second deformation 
band will lift toward the Canadian border by afternoon while snow 
levels only creep up to 4k ft by afternoon. What little daytime 
heating expected along with the cold air aloft will raise 
instability slightly and lead to a small chance of thunderstorms 
in the Cascades and Blue Mountains by Wednesday afternoon. 
Temperatures will be significantly cooler of 10 to 15 degrees from 
today. /Rfox. 


Wednesday night and thursday: the inland northwest should 
experience a bit of a drying trend Wednesday night into Thursday. 
The large deformation band associated with a bent back frontal 
occlusion is expected to migrate toward the Canadian rockies 
Wednesday night and remain well north and east of the region 
through Thursday. Models have been in decent agreement the last 
several runs that there should be a relative lull in precipitation 
over the northern Panhandle and southeast British Columbia on 
Thursday. This is good news for the swollen Kootenai and moyie 
rivers. On Thursday, our attention will turn toward the center of 
the 500mb low over western Washington and it's upper level cold 
pool. Moisture and instability profiles suggest that the best 
chances for showers on Thursday will be over the Cascades and 
possibly the Okanogan Highlands. The NAM and GFS both prog upwards 
of 200 j/kg of surface based cape over the Cascades Thursday 
afternoon. This won't be a particularly moisture-rich environment 
and 700-500mb flow suggests storm motion around 20 mph. However, 
we will monitor any convection over the Cascades closely this year 
over the burn scar areas near Wenatchee and Chelan. These scars 
will have a heightened potential for mud slides. 


Friday and Friday night: the 12z models suggest that the focus for 
showers will shift from the Cascades on Thursday toward northeast 
Oregon and southeast Washington on Friday. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) are 
in good agreement that the 500mb cold pool will drift into 
northern Oregon by Friday afternoon. The highest chances for 
showers looks to be in the Lewiston, Pomeroy, Winchester, Pullman 
and St. Maries zones. Thunderstorms may need to be added to the 
forecast (se Washington and central/southern Idaho panhandle) for 
Friday afternoon if the models continue to advertise this track 
and timing of the 500mb cold pool. /Gkoch 


Saturday through Tuesday...the inland northwest will continue to see 
unsettled conditions through the Holiday weekend. The upper low and 
associated synoptic forcing will weaken so precipitation should be 
more scattered in nature. Orographic ascent will become a more 
significant forcing mechanism so there will be a better chance of 
showers for the rising terrain north and east of the basin. With 
less cloud cover and precip expected, temperatures will trend closer 
to seasonal normals. /Kelch 




&& 


Aviation... 
18z tafs: a cold front will sweep through the taf sites today 
lowering cigs, showers, a wind switch with gusty winds. The front 
will push from keat to kmwh through 21z, and then March to the kgeg 
vcnty, kpuw and klws toward 00z. Anticipate light high based showers 
ahead of the front with the potential for thunderstorms. The best 
chance for thunderstorms will be north and east of kgeg this 
afternoon. Behind the front, expect cigs to continue to lower 
overnight with steady light rain. Snow levels will drop to 4-5k ft 
overnight. Cigs will be nearing MVFR by 12z. The rain will taper off 
to shower by Wednesday morning. /Rfox. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Spokane 41 51 37 61 44 61 / 80 80 20 30 10 40 
Coeur D'Alene 42 48 36 61 41 60 / 80 90 30 30 20 50 
Pullman 40 51 35 61 40 58 / 80 70 20 20 20 60 
Lewiston 45 59 41 67 46 65 / 70 70 20 30 20 50 
Colville 46 56 37 66 41 68 / 90 90 60 30 20 40 
Sandpoint 45 50 37 60 40 62 / 90 100 70 40 20 40 
Kellogg 42 44 35 57 42 57 / 90 90 70 30 40 60 
Moses Lake 45 62 40 67 45 67 / 60 40 20 30 20 30 
Wenatchee 44 57 40 65 45 65 / 60 40 30 40 20 30 
Omak 44 59 36 66 41 68 / 70 80 50 40 20 30 


&& 


Otx watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Washington...none. 
&& 


$$