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Next 12 Hours

Forecast data from the National Digital Forecast Database.

5 Day Forecast

• Sunday
• 
• High: 68 °
• Low: 48 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Monday
• 
• High: 75 °
• Low: 48 °
• Clear

• Tuesday
• 
• High: 86 °
• Low: 55 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Wednesday
• 
• High: 73 °
• Low: 41 °
• Partly Cloudy

• Thursday
• 
• High: 70 °
• Low: 43 °
• Partly Cloudy

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
847 PM MDT Sat may 18 2013 


Discussion...radar showed scattered 30+dbz echoes across 
Harney/Malheur counties and a couple cells with 40+dbz about to 
cross sunrise 51 between Riddle and Mountain City by 9 PM MDT. Isolated 
weak echoes were also over the I-84 corridor between Baker City 
and Nampa...just some virga on the Fruitland web cam and local 
wind gusts to 35 miles per hour at dead-I RAWS...were observed with these 
earlier this evening. Evening weather balloon sounding was more 
stable today +1... with 0.39 inches of precipitable water...and capped for 
convection. Some weak instability and lift with a shortwave 
impulse over Oregon this evening will cross SW Idaho through 9 am 
Sunday. With the loss of daytime heating believe the forecast is 
on the right track to mention thunder only before midnight tonight 
and after noon Sunday...with showers overnight tonight. Gusty northwest 
winds until midnight should remain northwest across the Treasure and west 
across the Magic Valley tonight...then rebuild a bit stronger for 
Sunday afternoon...solid 15-25 miles per hour in open areas...and gusts to 35 
miles per hour Sunday afternoon across southern Elmore County. This is on track 
with current forecast for no updates. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms... 
mainly across the higher terrain of southeast Oregon and along the 
Idaho/Nevada border this evening. Expect showers to continue through 
Sunday moving into SW Idaho after 09z. West-northwest surface winds will 
average 10 to 15 kts with local gusts to 25 kts. Northwesterly winds 
aloft will average 15 kts at 10k feet mean sea level. Expect stronger winds on 
Sunday from the west-northwest averaging 20 kts with gusts up to 30kts. 


&& 


Previous discussion... 
short term...tonight through Monday...a short wave trough moving 
through the back side of a departing long wave trough will pass 
over the area tonight and early Sunday. This will increase cloud 
cover and showers and bring a renewed risk of thunderstorms this 
evening. For Sunday...as the wave moves east...the chance of 
showers and threat for thunderstorms will be mainly in SW Idaho. 
Cooler temperatures will continue Sunday...with highs around 5 degrees 
below normal. A short-lived upper level ridge will move quickly 
through Monday...bringing a warm up of 5 to 10 degrees and a 
greatly decreased chance of precipitation. Winds through the short 
term will be light to moderate. The strongest winds will be Sunday 
afternoon when gusts could reach near 30 miles per hour in the upper Treasure 
valley. 


Long term...Monday night through Saturday...the brief warming and 
drying trend will continue Tuesday with the Great Basin under the 
influence of a shortwave ridge. Temperatures on Tuesday are forecast 
to reach 6-8 degrees f above normal. However this will not last long 
as a deep upper level low pressure system moving down the Washington 
coastline will bring a strong cold front through the area Tuesday 
night...dropping temperatures by around 15 degrees for Wednesday. This cut 
off low pressure system over the Pacific northwest will be the dominant 
feature through the rest of the forecast period. The models are 
struggling to pin down the motion of the low through the end of the week 
but there is good agreement that it will be stalled out over the Pacific northwest 
through the weekend. There looks to be at least a slight chance of showers 
from Wednesday onwards...mainly over southeast Oregon and the west central Idaho 
mountains. Expect temperatures to be several degrees below normal from 
Thursday and beyond. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Discussion...vm 
aviation.....Js 
previous short term...snow pellets 
previous long term....cb/dd